There seems to have been a great deal of speculation in regards to what Israel may or may not do to prevent Iran from continuing down the road to acquiring nuclear weapons. Yesterday I happened to read an article in the Atlantic about this very thing. The article was titled The Point of No Return, and it was written Jeffrey Goldberg, and I’d go so far as to say that it was one of the best pieces of long form journalism that I have read in recent years.
The article basically lays out the facts that make it seem very obvious that if the United States does not do something more drastic than create sanctions against Iran, then the nation state of Isreal will take it upon itself to use force to “rectify” the situation.
From the cover of this Month’s Atlantic…
Here’s the scenario: one day next year, Isreal’s national-security adviser and defense minister will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon to inform them that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just ordered roughtly 100 Israeli air-force jets to fly east toward Iran. The Israelis will say they are attacking because a nuclear Iran poses the gravest threat since Hitler to the survival of the Jewish people. They will tell the Americans that Israel was left with no choice. They will not be asking for permission because it will be too late to ask for permission.
They stand a good chance of changing the Middle East forever…
If that caught your attention (as it did mine), if you’re concerned about the price of oil / gas in the future, if you’re interested in the possibility of the United States becoming involved in some sort of military operation in the land situated in between Iraq and Afghanistan, or if you care about the relationship the United States has with the Nation State of Israel, I highly recommend that you read the rest of the article. It will knock your socks off!
For what ever they may (or may not) be worth, here are a few of my thoughts on this issue:
1. I don’t want the nation state of Iran to have nuclear weapons because they are a nation which at this point in time (and for many years now) has been lead by a group of religious fundamentalists (please note the use of the word religious as opposed to the use of the word Islamic).
Full disclosure – I’m a light weight Athiest. Meaning that I don’t believe in God, but at the same time I don’t have any problem with people who do, so long as their religious behaviors don’t cause harm, or appear to be getting ready to cause harm, to others.
In the case of Iran I believe the current (fundamentalist controlled) government has made it clear that they see it as their personal, political, moral, and spiritual duty to cause harm to the Jewish people and/or the nation state Israel and the citizens who live there. Feel free to disagree with me if you like, but religious fundamentalists all over the world have shown time and time again that when they get their hands on a weapon -any weapon- they have far fewer qualms about using said weapon than those people (religious and non-religious alike) who are not fundamentalists. This time the religious fundmentlists happen to be in control of the nation state of Iran, and they have their sites on the nation state of Isreal.
2. If Isreal does bomb Iran their government will have to deal with backlash from numerous political, economic, and ethnic groups.
Backlash, by its definition, is not something that can’t be prepared for. Be that as it may, I really believe that Isreal needs to be as ready as they can be by having a bunch of smart people sitting in a room with lots of coffee gaming this thing out as much as they can, for as long as they can.
The more time Isreal spends on (please forgive the term) pre-game preperation the better this will be for them.
3. No matter what Isreal should keep its “bomb in the basement” in the basement.
If Isreal were to publicly state that it has nuclear weapons, which is something that has never been stated but is totally understood, it would place Israel at a disadvantage in the short and long terms.
The short term disadvantage – Iran would look more justified in pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
The long term disadvantage – an increase in animosity directed towards Israel, and by proxy, Jewish people all over the world.
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I plan to keep up with this issue and blog about it throughout the next week, possibly longer.
