This goes along with another post I wrote today. In it I continue to sort of think out loud about the long term stability of Iraq…
Michael Tomasky has a great article today in The Guardian about the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq.
There’s a lot of big-think, big-picture stuff I could be saying about Iraq today, looking back over the whole arc of the thing, but I’ll leave that for another time, or leave it to you all to debate among yourselves.
What I wish to raise this morning is this question: what conditions would have to obtain for the US to have to resume combat operations there one day? Because this is the bottom-line question, right?
Mr. Tomasky goes on to state that he believes that as Iraq comes into its own politically it is very likely things will become violent. (He uses points made by Tom Ricks of Foreign Policy to further to back his opinion). Tomasky seems to be suggesting that the level of violence could, and and probably will, force the US military to become involved in combat.
However, Mr. Tomasky (rightly) suggests that Shi’a militias will be looking to set up a fundamentalist regime in Iraq.
I find this disturbing for two reasons…
1. If the Shi’a militias deliberately draw the US into combat that can help them politically. i.e. it will give the Shi’a a chance to capitalize on anti-US feelings in Iraq and win political power.
2. If the Shi’a militias don’t draw the US back into combat, such an event can help them politically. i.e. it will give the Shi’a a chance to use violence unchecked to win political power.
In short: I really hope that the US has gamed this sucker out ad nauseum and has some creative solutions in mind for the about 50,000 non-combat (but combat ready) troops that will still be hanging out in Iraq. Because if there is not a damn good plan for how to proceed when shit gets nasty it is only a matter of time before people are saying things like, “If only we had just finished the job we started back in 2010, we would not be needing to deal with [insert catastrophe here] today.”
Unfortunately, this is an election year, and as Mr. Tomasky also points out:
Back in 2006-2007, as Congress debate the question of a “date certain” for withdrawal, Republicans said that if the baddies know the pull-out date, they’ll obviously start planning mischief for immediately thereafter, while Democrats said, well, you gotta pull out sometime (and our base wants us out, although that part they didn’t much say).
Our elected officials have a different set of priorities that focus on shot term electoral victories rather than long term geopolitical stability.
Tags: ardian, combat troops, Congress, Foreigen Policy, gone, Iraq, Journalism, Michael Tomasky, Tom Ricks, United States